|
A price gap is an area on a
chart where no trading has taken place. There can be gaps in an
uptrend when the prices open above the previous day's highest price
and that space is not filled during the day. In a downtrend, the
highest price of the day is below the previous day's low. Upside gaps
signify market strength, whereas, downside gaps show weakness.
Although gaps are mostly seen on a daily bar chart, which is very
significant to a trader who is Day trading, they do appear on weekly
and monthly charts and are very significant then to Swing and Options
traders.
One of the biggest myths associated with the interpretation of gaps is
that "gaps are always filled". Not true; some gaps should be filled
and some should not. Le me also add, depending on which of the three
types of gaps it is, breakaway, runaway or exhaustion, the gap will
have different forecasting implications. Experienced traders are
likely familiar with the term "filling the gap" but it's a term worth
reviewing. If a stock moves against you, gapping open sharply higher
or lower (as a result, for example, of earnings from a "sympathy
stock"), consider removing stop orders momentarily and watching the
trade very closely. Many times shares will reverse from the extremes
of the gap, moving back toward the previous day's closing price,
before setting a clear direction for the day.
Opening price gaps can be up or down, and the size of the gap often has
an impact on subsequent price activity. For example, if a gap is
relatively wide, many traders will enter positions in the opposite
direction of the gap - a tactic called "fading the gap."
Each stock gap types has a long and short
trading signal, defining the eight gap trading strategies. The basic
tenet of gap trading is to allow one hour after the market opens for
the stock price to establish its range. A Modified Trading Method, to
be discussed later, can be used with any of the eight primary
strategies to trigger trades before the first hour, although it
involves more risk. Once a position is entered, you calculate and set
an 8% trailing stop to exit a long position, and a 4% trailing stop to
exit a short position. A trailing stop is simply an exit threshold
that follows the rising price or falling price in the case of short
positions.
Breakaway gap is a significant development and has strong implications
in the direction of the gap for the stock. Breakaway gaps occur when
prices jump outside of a recent trading range or consolidation area.
This may happen when a stock opens well above any high made recently
or well below any low made recently, as a result of sudden extreme
optimism or pessimism. Breakaway gaps are not filled quickly, and
leave a blank space on the stock chart. Breakaway gaps often occur as
resolutions to common chart patterns, as traders identify a pattern
and rush to be the first into the trade. Identifying breakaway gaps
properly can lead to very reliable trading signals, particularly when
they occur on high volume.
Gaps are measured from the prior day's closing price to the
current day's opening price. The post market activity and pre market
activity do not affect the gap. Stocks can trade after market hours,
and at pre market starting, but these are not considered "normal"
market hours.
For example, stock X closes at 7.00. It trades in after market hours
up to 7.50. The next day it starts trading at 7.20 and trades up to
7.60. Later in the day the stock is all the way down to 7.10. The
"Gap" as we measure it is only 20 cents (7.20 - 7.00). All those post
and pre market trades do not matter. The stock traded, and people made
and lost money, but the gap is not affected!
What causes gaps? Usually it is news driven. Individual
stocks can gap up or down due to news such as earnings reports,
earnings pre-announcements, analyst's upgrades and downgrades, rumors,
message board posts, key people in the company commenting, buying or
selling the stock.
 |